Next: Spencer Ackerman was the quickest to predict the future with his next-72-hours post-Qaddafi coverage media roundup. I’m expecting we’ll see at least 8 of these articles happen.
The Think Tanks weigh in: here is the recommended post-Qaddafi reading list from the Foreign Policy Initiative (yes, there are round-ups in my round-ups), and over at the Council on Foreign Relations, they have a roundtable on Libya after the Colonel. Quick takeaway:
- Richard N. Haass sees the drawn-out struggle and brutal death of Qaddafi as an incentive to any embattled leaders in the Middle East to take a Golden Parachute if one is offered.
- Ray Takeyh sees the end of Libya as a pariah state.
- Ed Husain predicts a continued struggle and a drawn out civil war, starting with Qaddafi loyalists and probably including a falling-out among coalition forces.
Implied but not yet explicitly stated: no one wants this to be the next Iraq, but with an armed populace, a shaky coalition, viable potential successors, and tenuous binding ties, it’s a real possibility. The substantive commentary we’ll see over the next week with be on how NATO can either a) extract itself from this as smoothly and quickly as possible before war breaks out, or b) guarantee a transition to civil government while still being active in the region.